This technical annex provides a description of the quantitative economic model used in the report South America: an emerging competitor for Australia's beef industry. The report focuses on the beef industries of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Australia. There are two objectives. The first is to assess the main drivers behind growth of beef exports from each country between 2000 and 2014. The second is to project the value of beef exports between 2014 and 2030 under scenarios reflecting hypothetical and actual changes to policies and operating environments.
A bilateral trade decomposition model was designed to quantify the historical drivers of beef exports from Australia and its major competitors in South America, with the aim of drawing implications for projections of future bilateral trade flows. Projections are developed for the period from 2014 to 2030 that are indicative of the prospects for both regions to expand their exports under three policy scenarios.